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Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered revenue of $3,792m (+14% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA of $655m (+4% YoY), and diluted EPS of $0.45, with results impacted by unusually customer‑friendly NFL outcomes in the U.S.; Adjusted EPS rose to $2.94 driven in part by a U.S. tax credit on historic losses .
  • FanDuel sustained U.S. leadership with 36% online GGR market share (sportsbook GGR 43%, sportsbook NGR 49%, iGaming GGR 26%) and a record structural sportsbook gross revenue margin of 14.5% in Q4, while U.S. iGaming revenue grew 43% .
  • Strong ex-U.S. momentum: UKI revenue +20% (sportsbook net revenue margin 16.1%), International +20% (Sisal Italy online +41%), offset by Australia −8% amid softer racing but continued structural margin expansion; Group ex-U.S. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $492m (+6%) .
  • FY 2025 guidance introduced: Group revenue $15.48–$16.38bn, Group Adjusted EBITDA $2.94–$3.38bn; U.S. existing states revenue midpoint $7.72bn and Adjusted EBITDA midpoint $1.4bn; Group ex-U.S. revenue midpoint $8.25bn and Adjusted EBITDA midpoint $1.85bn .
  • Capital returns: $121m repurchased in Q4; up to ~$1bn expected in 2025; leverage reduced to 2.2x with net debt down to $5,160m .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • U.S. product leadership: structural sportsbook margin hit 14.5% in Q4; parlay engagement increased with new live features and rollout of “YourWay” customization; iGaming AMPs +37% supported exclusive content and rewards innovation .
  • International share gains: Sisal’s market share reached 15.0% (Flutter Italy 21.4%); Sisal Italy online revenue +41%; strong growth in India (+88% revenue in Q4; AMPs +72% Yo2Y), Turkey (+62%), Georgia (+31%) and Brazil (+19% cc) .
  • Management tone: “We have had a great start to 2025,” highlighting record Super Bowl engagement (3m actives, 17.7m bets, $470m wagered) and confidence in capital deployment across organic growth, M&A (NSX, Snai), and buybacks .

What Went Wrong

  • U.S. sportsbook headwind: net revenue margin fell to 6.7% (−30bps YoY) driven by significant adverse sports results; U.S. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 3% to $163m despite strong iGaming .
  • Australia softness: revenue −8% and Adjusted EBITDA −35% YoY as racing declined and taxes in Victoria increased, partially offset by structural margin expansion (+30bps to 17.9%) .
  • Non‑GAAP/GAAP noise: $212m fair value loss on Fox Option and $134m acquired intangibles amortization affected reported results; prior year included a $725m PokerStars impairment .

Financial Results

Group P&L and EPS vs prior quarters

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$3,611 $3,248 $3,792
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$738 $450 $655
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)20.4% 13.9% 17.3%
Diluted EPS ($)$1.45 $(0.58) $0.45
Adjusted EPS ($)$2.61 $0.43 $2.94

Notes: Sequentially, revenue rose from $3,248m in Q3 to $3,792m in Q4; Adjusted EPS rose from $0.43 to $2.94 .

Segment revenue and Adjusted EBITDA

SegmentQ2 2024 Revenue ($mm)Q3 2024 Revenue ($mm)Q4 2024 Revenue ($mm)Q2 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($mm)Q3 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($mm)Q4 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($mm)
US$1,527 $1,250 $1,611 $260 $58 $163
UKI$928 $846 $963 $293 $237 $319
International$807 $781 $872 $156 $152 $172
Australia$349 $371 $346 $74 $72 $66
Group Ex‑US$2,084 $1,998 $2,181 $478 $392 $492
Group Total$3,611 $3,248 $3,792 $738 $450 $655

KPIs and operational metrics

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Group Average Monthly Players (‘000s)14,344 12,920 14,605
U.S. Sportsbook Net Revenue Margin (%)10.0% 8.2% 6.7%
U.S. Structural Sportsbook Gross Revenue Margin (%)12.9% 12.8% 14.5%
U.S. Sportsbook Handle Growth YoY (%)+35% +36% +12%
U.S. iGaming Revenue Growth YoY (%)+47% +46% +43%
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities ($mm)$323 $290 $652

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Group Revenue ($)FY 2025N/A$15.48bn – $16.38bn Introduced
Group Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025N/A$2.94bn – $3.38bn Introduced
U.S. Existing States Revenue ($)FY 2025N/AMidpoint $7.72bn Introduced
U.S. Existing States Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025N/AMidpoint $1.4bn Introduced
U.S. New States Revenue ($)FY 2025N/A$(40)m Introduced
U.S. New States Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025N/A$(90)m Introduced
Group ex‑U.S. Revenue ($)FY 2025N/A$8.05bn – $8.45bn (midpoint $8.25bn) Introduced
Group ex‑U.S. Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025N/A$1.75bn – $1.95bn (midpoint $1.85bn) Introduced
Interest Expense, net ($)FY 2025N/A$360m – $380m Introduced
D&A (excl. acquired intangibles) ($)FY 2025N/A~ $580m Introduced
Capital Expenditure ($)FY 2025N/A~ $710m Introduced
Share Repurchases ($)FY 2025N/AUp to ~$1bn Introduced
U.S. Revenue ($)FY 2024$6.05–$6.35bn $6.05–$6.25bn (midpoint $6.15bn) Narrowed/Lowered midpoint −1%
U.S. Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2024$680–$800m $670–$750m (midpoint $710m) Narrowed/Lowered midpoint −4%
Group ex‑U.S. Revenue ($)FY 2024$7.85–$8.15bn $8.1–$8.3bn (midpoint $8.2bn) Raised
Group ex‑U.S. Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2024$1.69–$1.85bn $1.77–$1.87bn (midpoint $1.82bn) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Product innovation (parlays/live)Structural margin expansion; exclusive slots; YourWay in trial Parlay penetration +700bps early NFL; live SGP; YourWay in two states Structural margin 14.5%; new live features; YourWay rolled across NFL and expanding to NBA Strengthening
U.S. tax/regulatoryIllinois tax net impact $40m; mitigate ~50% from 2025 Q4 adverse results overshadow Q3; Illinois tax impact ongoing 2025 mitigation baseline 50%; Missouri Q4 launch; Alberta Q1’26; monitoring prediction markets Managed mitigation; watchlist on expansion
iGaming leadershipiGaming +47%; tech migration to proprietary casino iGaming +46%; AMP +43% iGaming +43%; AMPs +37%; rewards/jackpots/product content Sustained outperformance
International portfolioMaxBet addition; Sisal share gains Sisal share up; strong Turkey/Georgia; India lapping tax Sisal Italy online +41%; Junglee back to growth; prep for Snai/NSX Positive momentum; M&A integration ahead
Capital allocationDeleveraging to 2.6x; Investor Day preview Announced $5bn buyback program; first tranche $121m repurchased in Q4; ~$1bn planned in 2025 Scaling returns
Macro/consumerResilient demand in UKI; Euros tailwind Growth across segments Defensive across cycles; no signs of consumer weakness in U.S./international Resilient

Management Commentary

  • CEO (press release): “FanDuel remains America’s number one sportsbook... excellent execution secured a new number one spot for FanDuel Casino in iGaming... We have had a great start to 2025, including record levels of customer engagement for the Super Bowl” .
  • CEO (call): “Our focus on product innovation helped to drive our structural gross revenue margin to 14.5%... YourWay rolled out across NFL... very pleasing engagement” .
  • CFO (call): “We estimate customer‑friendly sports results cost approximately $550m in revenue and $360m in Adjusted EBITDA in Q4... Despite that, operating leverage remained strong” .
  • CFO (call): On guidance phasing: “~24–25% of 2025 U.S. revenue and ~20% of 2025 U.S. Adjusted EBITDA arise in Q1; ~60% U.S. Adjusted EBITDA in H2; Q4 remains largest quarter” .

Q&A Highlights

  • New state timing and investment: Missouri targeting Q4 2025 (~$80m launch costs), ~$10m pre‑launch in Alberta ahead of Q1 2026; total new states ~$90m Adjusted EBITDA cost .
  • U.S. acquisition environment and paybacks: Continued compelling CAC with paybacks <18 months; confidence in scaling both sportsbook and iGaming .
  • Illinois tax mitigation: 2024 gross ~$50m, net ~$40m; plan to mitigate ~50% going forward; largest operator best positioned to adapt .
  • Handle vs revenue focus: Management emphasizes revenue/EBITDA over handle; handle can be influenced by promos; sequential moderation in Q4 anticipated due to calendar/state launch phasing .
  • Prediction markets: Monitoring regulatory developments; opportunity seen as limited vs richness of true sportsbook offering .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus for Q4 2024 (Revenue, EPS, EBITDA) via S&P Global was unavailable at time of analysis due to request‑limit errors. Accordingly, numeric comparisons to consensus could not be provided. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • U.S. leadership intact with structural margin tailwinds (14.5% in Q4) and parlay innovation likely to support revenue mix even as handle moderates; this underpins 2025 U.S. existing‑states EBITDA midpoint of $1.4bn .
  • iGaming is a growth engine: AMPs +37% and revenue +43% in Q4 with rewards/jackpots/exclusive content—supportive of cross‑sell and cohort monetization .
  • Adverse Q4 sports results were transitory but material (≈$550m revenue, ≈$360m EBITDA pre‑mitigation); management reaffirmed long‑term margin targets and Q1 neutral sports results to date .
  • International diversification is working: Italy strength (Sisal online +41%), India recovery, Turkey/Georgia growth, with pending NSX/Snai adding scale—watch integration and Brazil investment phasing .
  • Balance sheet and capital returns: leverage now 2.2x; $121m repurchased in Q4; up to ~$1bn planned in 2025—provides support to TSR while funding M&A .
  • 2025 phasing matters for trading: ~60% of U.S. EBITDA expected in H2 with Q4 largest—positioning around seasonal catalysts (NFL/holiday) remains relevant .
  • Regulatory/tax risks manageable: Illinois mitigation baseline ~50%; largest operator advantage may drive share stability amid changes .

Appendix: Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q4 context)

  • Diamond Sports Group and FanDuel announced broad commercial partnership (Oct 18, 2024), enhancing media reach during the NBA/NHL seasons—supports engagement funnel .
  • FanDuel NBA League Pass promotions launched ahead of season (Oct 15, 2024), a demand catalyst for live betting/viewership integration .
  • Responsible gaming initiatives expanded in early 2025: My Spend adoption (~3.5m customers) and Deposit Alerts, plus RG programming; supportive for sustainable engagement .